Unorthodox research and a Dark Prediction on Covid-19 in 2021
- philippankaj
- May 3, 2022
- 2 min read
Hello, my name is Philip.
I heard on a popular TV channel yesterday that the Maharashtra government is planning to reintroduce partial lockdown, as well as CM Uddhav Thackeray’s strained words revealing something odd. Later that night I made a google search on covid 19, On the top of the page comes the new cases graph of India.
Being numerate, at first glance, I could see something serious and fishy is unfolding. So I decided to take a deep dive into the data. From the surface of covid 19 and with the obtained graph, I could smell time series dependency on Covid behavior. So, I extracted covid data from Github and performed a spectral analysis over it, and then the major dependent frequencies were decoded.
And here you go, there is a dependency on the intensifying phase, and the ease-out phase there completes the cycle. We are now witnessing the emergence of a new cycle with the inherited covid viruses all over the world. The rapid growth of new cases keeps me wondering how long it’ll take for the second cycle to end. With an obtained frequency domain, Decoded cycle graph was forecasted for the next 164 days and observed as shown below.
It was discovered that Covid second wave could ease out from the end of June or the beginning of July 2021. Now comes the next question, “How far could the second wave reach?”
I decided to approach this task using a derivative approach in comparison to the forecasted graph.
As shown in the graph, On examining the first cycle intensifying impulse with 3-3 analysis(lower and upper peaks on the start of cycles) the adjacent Covid cases ranged from 6,198 to 19,459 with a difference of 13,261. I took the first wave peak, 97,894, and subtracted it by 19,459 to get a difference of 78,435. Then Found a multiplier factor of 5.914 with a ratio of 78,435: 13,261.
Using the most recent second wave impulse, I performed the same 3-3 analysis as shown in the graph above to calculate the current difference of new Covid cases in that period, which is approximately 59,137.
Using the previously obtained factor, I multiplied 5.914 with 59,137, yielding a value of 349,736 cases per day as the peak of this second wave, which is very dark.
I felt really bad about the outcome of this research. Still, I have some hope that this scenario should not happen in the near future. If this happens, then there will be an economic breakdown once again, which will be much deeper and more painful. So, Please stay safe and wear your masks.
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